Leverage Maps #20: I Stopped Trying To Predict My Career's Future

Most people try to predict the future: "When will AI replace my job?" "Which skills will be valuable in 5 years?" "Should I learn this new framework?"

But predictions break. Markets shift. Technologies evolve differently than expected. I learned this the hard way when I was convinced blockchain would explode like AI is now. Lost money in 2021-2022 bear markets because my timeline was wrong, even though the underlying tech thesis held.

That's when I shifted from predictions to convictions.

Predictions = specific outcomes with exact timing Convictions = durable beliefs that guide consistent action

Instead of "Junior dev roles will saturate in 2023," I developed: "Technical roles will become more competitive; I should build differentiated skills." Instead of "Crypto will moon by 2022," I refined: "Digital assets have long-term potential; I should position accordingly but size conservatively."

The magic happens in the refinement loop: Gather information → Form conviction → Take action → Update based on results → Repeat

I've been using AI as a thinking partner in this process. It's not to give me answers. It's to help me discover what I actually think through writing and reflection. The best conversations happen when AI challenges me about 40% of the time. If it agrees with everything, I'm in an echo chamber. If it pushes back too much, I'm not being honest about my views.

This framework helped me navigate my career transition, reframe my "inconsistent" path as strategic pendulum swings, and plan my sabbatical around what actually matters to me. Your convictions become your north star when the future gets murky.

What's one conviction (not prediction) guiding your career decisions right now?

P.S. This is one of the frameworks I'm exploring in my upcoming book on strategic thinking and leverage: Leverage Maps. More insights coming soon.