Leverage Maps #12: How I Learned To Thank the Dunning-Kruger Effect

The first time I wrote a systems guide, I was unqualified. I didn’t know how to diagram cross-team interactions or the full product lifecycle. But I wrote it anyway because I thought I could figure it out.

That quiet, naive overconfidence that is paired with the “I can probably do this” reflex is usually framed as overreach. But sometimes, it’s a lever.

I didn't wait to be qualified. I mapped what I could see: coordination gaps, onboarding improvement opportunities, multiple sources of truth causing rework.

The write-up I made wasn’t perfect. But it sparked discussions we weren’t having before during retrospectives and informed upcoming phases of the project. It gave visibility to patterns we were blind to, and it taught me more about systems thinking in 2 weeks than the 3 months before.

Here's the progression I’ve seen again and again: Naive energy → Attempt → Hard lesson → Real progress

1. Assume the task is within reach
2. Sweat through it
3. Realize you were partly wrong but now deeply informed
4. Emerge with new clarity

If you didn’t overestimate your ability at the start, you wouldn't have made the first attempt. You wouldn't have gotten data, feedback, or experience.

The risk of the Dunning-Kruger effect isn’t thinking you’re capable. The mistake is failing to adjust after the first swing.

So here’s the leverage map:

Overestimation gets you moving. Correction gets you learning. Repetition gets you sharp.

In our rapidly evolving world, I’ve stopped waiting to be qualified. I’d rather learn fast by moving early.

What's one worthwhile thing that you've done that you were unqualified to do when you started?