Hard Guarantees #12: Bitcoin Threat Models
Before debating how to change Bitcoin, start with: What threat are we solving for?
Most real-world Bitcoin failures happen at the edges including exchanges, custodians, regulatory choke points. It's not the base layer.
If a proposal doesn’t map to a real, likely threat, it might be solving yesterday’s or an imaginary problem.
Threat Model Checklist for Base Layer Proposals
If your threat is…
Slow block propagation → Dynamic block scaling with target stale block rate
Mining centralization pressure → Share stale block rewards with smaller miners
Hash rate security drops → Merged mining hard fork
Loss of mining diversity → ASIC-resistant algorithms
High user fees blocking adoption → Fee reduction mechanisms
Ask before supporting any change:
- What’s the exact threat?
- Is it backed by real-world data?
- Will this still be the right threat to solve in 2030?
If we can’t answer those questions clearly, we’re optimizing blind.
